Advanced Starting Pitcher Evaluation for Sports Betting

Pitcher Evaluation in MLB Betting

When you bet on baseball games, the starting 윈윈벳 pitchers are the most important position to start with. Like all sports betting, you can’t ignore the whole picture including every other position on the field, but it’s hard to make accurate predictions without a complete  understanding of what the starting pitchers are going to do.

Most people who bet on baseball have at least an idea of how important starting pitchers are. But they tend to just look at their ERA and win loss record. You need to look at these things too, but they’re just the tip of the iceberg.

Here’s a list of everything you need to track and consider in advanced starting pitcher evaluation for sports betting. Each section focuses on one area, explains why it’s important, and gives you specific ways to use the information to make more accurate predictions.

ERA

ERA, which stands for earned run average, is a computation of how many earned runs a pitcher gives up on average per nine innings pitched. It’s a nice statistic because you can compare two or more pitchers at a glance with a single number for each pitcher.

But ERA only tells part of the story. It’s still a good place to start, but you need to consider much more to get a complete picture.

I always look at earned runs and unearned runs when evaluating starting pitchers as well as the defensive ability of the catcher and the players behind the pitcher. A pitcher with a great shortstop, catcher, and center fielder is going to have a lower ERA than if he played with a weaker defense.

HERE’S AN EXAMPLE

Pitcher A has an ERA of 3.50 and pitcher B has an ERA of 3.25. On the surface, it looks like pitcher B is a better starting pitcher. But if pitcher B has one of the best defensive teams behind him, and pitcher A has one of the worst, it’s likely that pitcher A is actually a better starter.

But the problem is that when you evaluate baseball games for betting purposes, you can’t ignore anything. So, you still have to evaluate the pitcher and his defense as a whole.

I evaluate pitchers and their defenses separately. So, in the example above I likely have the pitcher with the 3.50 ERA ranked better than the one with the 3.25. Later in my evaluation for the game I include adjustments based on the defense.

This is important because the defense behind the pitcher can change. This happens when key players get a day off, are injured, or get traded. If you don’t evaluate the pitcher separately, you often miss the necessary adjustment when key defensive players change.

HERE’S AN EXAMPLE

Pitcher B in the example above has a gold glove shortstop and center fielder behind him most of the time. They both get to more balls and make fewer errors than most players. But if you know that the starting shortstop is getting a day off, it often makes a big difference in the outcome for the pitcher that day.

It’s also important to realize that the only thing you really care about is the number of runs a starting pitcher gives up. It doesn’t matter if the runs are earned or unearned, because they all count.

You don’t have to evaluate starting pitchers the way I suggest when it comes to ERA, but you need to make sure you make adjustments to account for defensive changes.

WHIP

WHIP, which stands for walks plus hits divided by innings pitched, is a statistic that I use more than ERA. I always use it in conjunction with ERA, but I weight it heavier in my evaluations.

Pitchers that give up fewer base runners give up fewer runs on average than the ones that give up more base runners. You can find exceptions to this, but they need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

A dominant strikeout pitcher may have a higher WHIP than some pitchers if he walks more batters, but because he throws harder than average and strikes out more players in scoring opportunities, he may still be a better pitcher than the one with a lower WHIP.

Some power pitchers give up a lot of walks but give up a higher percentage of singles than extra base hits when they give up hits. You need to know how each pitcher’s WHIP is created and how effective he is in keeping base runners from scoring.

Though it’s impossible to see from raw numbers, the defense behind the pitcher also influences the WHIP. A shortstop, second baseman, and center fielder who cover more ground than average help lower a pitcher’s WHIP, and defenders who don’t cover as much ground inflate WHIP.

Strikeouts to Walks

In general, walks are one of the starting pitcher’s worst enemies. Giving the other team a free base runner isn’t a good thing. But you can’t stop at evaluating how many walks a pitcher gives up.

Before continuing, you need to learn 스보벳  an important lesson. You should always try to develop and evaluate statistics in a way so that you can compare two or more pitchers on even footing. This means that instead of just looking at how many walks a pitcher gives up, you need to look at how many per nine innings he gives up.

You need to do this with strikeouts, walks, hits, home runs, and anything else you track. This makes it easier to compare pitchers.

When you evaluate the starting pitchers, compare the strikeouts per nine innings and walks per nine innings. Walks are self-explanatory. A pitcher that gives up more walks per nine innings isn’t as good as one that gives up less.

But strikeouts aren’t as clear cut. In general, more strikeouts are better, but this isn’t always the case. When Greg Maddux was in his prime, he wasn’t a big strikeout pitcher, but there was no question that he was one of the best starting pitchers in the game.

You need to evaluate how well a pitcher can prevent runs from scoring. A ground ball pitcher that has low strikeout numbers can get more double plays with runners on base. A pitcher that strikes out more batters can get a big strikeout when a runner is in scoring position.

Both of these types of pitchers can be good at preventing runs. The key is to dig into the numbers deep enough so that you know each pitcher’s strengths and weaknesses.

In general, the pitcher with the best strikeout to walk ratio is better, but, as with most things, there are exceptions. A pitcher that strikes out 10 or 11 batters per nine innings can get away with walking two or three more batters per nine innings than a weaker pitcher.

Singles, Doubles, Triples, and Home Runs

This is something that only a small percentage of baseball bettors consider. You should separate all of the hits each starting pitcher gives up by singles, doubles, triples, and home runs and determine how many per nine innings they give up.

You often find that one pitcher is much better than another, even if they both give up roughly the same number of hits per nine innings.

HERE’S AN EXAMPLE

Two pitchers each give up nine hits per nine innings. But one pitcher gives up seven singles, one double, and one home run per nine innings and the other gives up four singles, three doubles, and two home runs per nine innings.

Of course, you also need to include strikeouts, walks, and double plays into your evaluation, but the pitcher that only gives up two extra base hits per nine innings is better than the one who gives up five.

If you don’t separate out the types of hits each pitcher gives up, you can’t effectively evaluate them.

At this point you should have the following statistics per nine innings for each pitcher.

Total runs

Earned runs

Unearned runs

Strikeouts

Walks

Double plays

Total hits

Singles

Doubles

Triples

Home runs

With this information, you can make accurate comparisons between two or more starting pitchers. At first this may seem like a great deal of work, but you can build a spreadsheet that computes all of these numbers when you put the details in.

If you want to be a winning baseball bettor, this is an important step in the process. You’re going to learn more things to include in your evaluations below, but without this solid foundation, you’re going to struggle when evaluating starting pitchers.

Wins and Losses

The win-loss record of starting pitchers is of little value. Many good baseball bettors ignore wins and losses and, for the most part, I also ignore them.

The main reason a win-loss record isn’t important is because teams win and lose as a whole. A starting pitcher that gets low run support can be a great pitcher and still have a hard time winning games. And a weak pitcher who gets strong run support can have a good win-loss record.

But I don’t completely ignore wins and losses. I do evaluate the pitching and offense separately, but I also place some weight on a pitcher’s overall record. It becomes more important when it gets extreme.

HERE’S AN EXAMPLE

Pitcher A has a record of 15 – 5 and pitcher B has a record of 11 – 10. On the surface, it looks like pitcher A is much better, but by now you know that these numbers aren’t as important as the list of numbers per nine innings in the last section.

If you evaluate the two pitchers and see they have close to the same numbers everywhere else but their record, you need to start looking for the reason. It’s often their offensive support, but you need to know this for sure.

Baseball is a team sport, and it also has a psychological aspect that can’t be ignored. The team with the pitcher with a 15 – 5 record is likely to have more confidence when he’s on the mound than the one with the 11 – 10 record.

This might not seem important, but when you’re trying to make a profit betting on the games, you need to consider it in your predictions.

What this all boils down to is that I use the win-loss records for the starting pitcher as a type of tie breaker in games where I evaluate the two sides being close to equal. Winning an extra game a week is worth a great deal of profit over the course of the season, so every little advantage that you can find is important.

Innings Pitched

Many sports bettors ignore innings pitched for starting pitchers, but this is a mistake. I track how many innings each starter has thrown this season, how many innings they average per start, how many innings they’ve thrown in each of their last three starts, and how many innings they’ve pitched per year for each of the last three years, including in the minor leagues.

The reason I track how many innings each pitcher has thrown so far during the current season is to get an idea of their use and the possibility of fatigue. This is also why I want to know how many innings they’ve pitched in each of their last three starts.

Every pitcher is different, but all of them can get worn down to some degree over the course of a season. By tracking how many innings they pitched during the previous three seasons, you can compare their current work load to their historical load.

The other statistic I mentioned deals with their average innings pitched per start. This is important when you evaluate a baseball game so you can predict how much the bullpen may be needed. The difference between a starter that averages five innings per start and seven is huge, because the bullpen only has so many strong pitchers.

When the starter pitches seven innings, it creates less stress on the bullpen and the manager can use his best relievers to finish the final two innings. But when the starter is done after five innings, the bullpen has to cover twice as many innings, and a weaker pitcher is more likely to pitch.

It’s not easy to predict how games are going to play out, but by using all of the information about innings pitched you can improve the accuracy of your predictions.

I try to track starting pitchers from year to year and make notes of when their performance changes in comparison to their work load. This isn’t an exact science, but if a pitcher who has never thrown more than 160 innings goes over that mark, you need to watch for signs of fatigue and / or injury.

You can also identify pitchers that are able to continue pitching effectively deep into seasons even with heavy workloads. A few are even able to get better as the season goes on. Knowing these things goes a long way toward picking winners.

Pitch Count

Tracking the pitch count for each starter for every start is also important. Major League Baseball has become more specialized over time, and most pitchers are on some sort of pitch count limit. And the best pitchers are usually able to keep their pitch count down so they can pitch deeper into games.

Young pitchers are notorious for high pitch counts per inning, forcing the bullpen to come into games earlier. This taxes their bullpen and hurts their team during the current start and for the rest of the year. Each bullpen only has so many good innings available each season and when they have to pitch more than a couple innings per game it has a season-long effect.

You also need to know when a starting pitcher has thrown more pitches than normal in one of his last few starts. A pitcher that usually throws 100 pitches a game that suddenly has to throw 120 or more may show signs of fatigue in his next start or two.

Almost no one does it, but if you want to give yourself the best chance to win, you should track how many pitches each starter throws per season so you can compare where they stand in the current season versus past years.

Pitchers only have so many pitches in their arm over the course of their career. Some can throw thousands more than others over their career, but they all break down eventually. Tracking how much use they have over their career helps you look for possible problems.

Innings pitched is what most bettors use if they consider pitcher wear and tear, but pitch count is better.

HERE’S AN EXAMPLE

Pitcher A has 2,000 innings pitched in his career and pitcher B has 1,800. It looks like pitcher A has been used more. But pitcher A averages 12 pitches per inning and pitcher B averages 15. Now you can see that pitcher A has a total pitch count of 24,000 and pitcher B has a total of 27,000.

This clearly shows that pitcher B has more wear than pitcher A. Of course, this isn’t something that means a ton by itself, but it helps you in combination with other things you know and track to make educated guesses about future performance.

Stolen Bases

Stolen bases are usually ignored when evaluating starting pitchers. When a sports bettor considers them it’s generally in relation to the offense or the catcher.

But starting pitchers have a great deal to do with the stolen bases they give up. Some pitchers are able to hold runners close to the bag and have fast deliveries to the plate. Others don’t hold runners well and are slow to the plate.

You need to track stolen base attempts per inning pitched, successful attempts per inning, and caught stealing outcomes per inning pitched. When you compare these numbers to the running ability of the next opponent, you can predict how much the running game may come into play.

Team Defense

I discussed quite a bit about defense in an earlier section, so you should know how important it can be for starting pitchers. It’s so important that it needs its own section.

You learned how above-average defensive players in key positions have a big impact on the starting pitching and how a defender’s range can increase or decrease base hits.

If you want to give yourself the best chance to win, you need to be able to predict how each specific defensive combination of players changes the pitcher’s performance. One way to do this is to track the ERA of the entire pitching staff for each combination of defensive players.

This isn’t easy, and the statistics aren’t readily available, but you need to know how many runs per game each lineup gives up in comparison to others. It’s fairly easy to figure out whom the best defensive shortstops are, but how does the defense do when he’s paired with the starting second baseman and when he plays with the back up?

You may need to compile these statistics from box scores and watching games, so it can be time intensive. But this is one of the small edges you can create by outworking the book makers.

Catchers

I track the staff ERA for each catcher in the league. Though ERA isn’t the best statistic overall in many cases, in this case it gives you enough information to make adjustments when you evaluate games.

Catchers get more time off for rest and injuries than any other position, so you have to evaluate games with the backup catcher more often. You need to evaluate each catcher’s offensive production when evaluating offenses, but it’s important to see how each one helps or hurts his team on defense as well.

You also need to see how the catcher changes the stolen base attempts and successes for each starting pitcher. The fact is that there aren’t enough quality defensive catchers to go around in MLB, so the backup catcher is usually worse defensively than the starter. But this isn’t always the case.

Some backups are exceptional defensive players but can’t break into the starting lineup. You need to know which ones fit this description, and how each catcher changes the staff ERA when they catch.

Conclusion

Use this guide to advanced starting pitcher evaluation for sports betting to improve your results. Starting pitchers are the most important position when betting on baseball, and if you follow what you just learned you’re going to do a better job evaluating them than anyone else.